War Risk Premium Hits Global Food System as Fertilizer Plants Preemptively Shut Down
The mere possibility of war involving Iran is already disrupting global food production. Fertilizer manufacturers are shutting plants not because supply chains are cut, but because they're making a calculated bet that energy prices will spike if conflict erupts—and they can't afford to be caught running when costs surge.
Bottom Line
War risk is functioning as economic reality for the food system. Fertilizer plants are shutting down based on what might happen, not what has happened, because the financial exposure of operating through an energy price spike is too great. The result is the same as if the war had already started: reduced production, tighter supplies, and higher food prices globally. This is preventive economics creating actual scarcity.
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