Wall Street Is Betting on a US-Iran Deal That No One in Tehran May Be Able to Sign
Markets closed the week higher on hopes that Washington and Tehran are moving toward an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Here's the problem: that optimism is running well ahead of the diplomatic reality. The last US-Iran truce collapsed, both sides declared it dead, and Iran's Supreme Leader has been missing since a March 30 airstrike -- which raises a question the market rally quietly skips over: who in Tehran actually has the authority to make this deal stick?
Bottom Line
Friday's rally was a vote of confidence in diplomacy that hasn't actually happened yet. An agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would be a genuine de-escalation milestone in the US-Iran war -- but with the last ceasefire dead, US broker credibility damaged, and Iran's Supreme Leader missing since a March airstrike, the gap between what markets are hoping for and what diplomats can actually deliver is wide. Treat the optimism as a signal worth watching, not a done deal.