U.S.-Iran War Enters Third Month as Regional States Recalibrate Alliances
The February 28 Israeli-U.S. bombing campaign against Iran—now in its third month—is forcing every country in the Middle East to make a binary choice they've spent decades avoiding: align clearly with one side or face consequences from both. This isn't another proxy conflict or round of sanctions. It's a direct war between the U.S.-Israel axis and Iran, with a second front in Lebanon, and the region's neutral brokers are running out of room to maneuver.
Bottom Line
A direct U.S.-Iran war—not a proxy conflict, but actual combat operations now in their third month—is forcing the Middle East's traditional fence-sitters to pick a side. The economic shocks are already visible in global supply chains, but the diplomatic consequences may prove more lasting. This is the most significant restructuring of regional alliances since the Arab Spring, happening at wartime speed.