The World's Shock Absorbers Are Worn Out: IMF Warns the Real Danger Isn't an Oil Disruption — It's Having No Cushion Left
The IMF just delivered a warning that's less about oil and more about resilience: if energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz get squeezed as the U.S. and Iran resume fighting, the global economy has less capacity than before to absorb the hit. In plain terms, the emergency toolkit that governments and central banks used to soften past crises is thinner than it used to be. That means a shock of the same size would hurt more now than it would have a few years ago.
Bottom Line
The IMF isn't forecasting a crisis — it's warning that the world's ability to manage one has eroded, precisely as the U.S.-Iran war makes a Hormuz disruption plausible again. The real risk isn't just what Iran or the U.S. might do to energy flows; it's that the global economy is entering this confrontation with its shock absorbers already worn down. That makes every escalation in the Gulf more economically consequential than the same move would have been a few years ago, and it hands both belligerents more leverage from mere threats.