The Most Dangerous Moment Isn't When China Feels Strong—It's When It Feels Time Running Out
The biggest predictor of whether China moves on Taiwan may not be its military strength at all—it's whether Beijing's leaders believe their advantage is growing or slipping away. That psychological calculation, not any single weapons system, is what could determine whether the U.S. is dragged into a Pacific war this decade.
Bottom Line
The smartest framing of the Taiwan question isn't 'Is China strong enough?' but 'Does Beijing think its best days are ahead or behind?' A confident China waits. A China that fears decline is the one that rolls the dice. The challenge for Washington is to deter without convincing China that its window is slamming shut.
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