Iran's Biggest Bargaining Chip Is Losing Its Value at the Worst Possible Moment for Tehran
The threat that has hung over every round of US-Iran negotiations -- Tehran choking off the Strait of Hormuz -- is quietly losing its power to frighten anyone. A sudden glut of cheap, plentiful crude means countries can refill their stockpiles fast, and a full stockpile is insurance against exactly the kind of chokepoint blackmail Iran has been counting on. That shift changes the balance at the negotiating table more than any airstrike has.
Bottom Line
Iran's ability to hold the global economy hostage via the Strait of Hormuz has been the quiet engine behind its negotiating posture for months. An oil glut is dismantling that engine faster than any military operation could, handing Washington leverage without firing a shot. The open question is whether a weakened hand makes Tehran more willing to sign -- or more tempted to demonstrate, violently, that its threats still matter.