Iran May Sign a Hormuz Deal. The Real Question Is Whether Anyone in Tehran Can Enforce It
Iran says an agreement with Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is nearly done — but the people negotiating it may not be the people who control whether it holds. With Iran's Supreme Leader missing since a March 30 airstrike and hard-liners gaining clout, the deal's biggest vulnerability isn't its terms. It's whether Tehran's diplomats can deliver on their own signature.
Bottom Line
Iran and Oman appear close to a framework for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but the announcement is only as good as Tehran's ability to enforce it — and with hard-liners ascendant and the Supreme Leader's fate unknown, that ability is in serious doubt. This isn't just a shipping story; it's a test of whether Iran currently has a government coherent enough to make deals with at all. The answer will shape every negotiation that follows, including any path out of the war itself.