Iran Just Lost Its Most Feared Weapon — And It Never Fired a Shot
For four decades, the single most feared threat in geopolitics was Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway carrying roughly a fifth of the world's oil. Six months into an actual war, that threat has been tested in real conditions for the first time, and it's failing. Middle Eastern oil exports have climbed back above 80% of their prewar daily average, and the strategic implications go far beyond fuel.
Bottom Line
THE BOTTOM LINE: The world is learning it can live with an Iranian attempt to choke Hormuz — and Iran is learning it too. That erodes Tehran's single most valuable strategic asset and weakens its position in any eventual negotiation, especially with the ceasefire dead and its leadership in question. But a regime stripped of its best deterrent doesn't simply fold; it looks for new ways to impose costs. The stabilizing oil flows are good news. What Iran does in response to losing that leverage is the part to watch.