China's Leverage Play: How Beijing Is Navigating Trump's Iran War While Holding Cards on Trade
While U.S. military operations hammer Iran, China's foreign minister just signaled that planned Trump-Xi talks could still produce a "big year" for bilateral relations. That's diplomatic speak for: Beijing thinks it has leverage right now, and it's not wrong. The timing matters because Trump is simultaneously prosecuting a war that depends on China's economic cooperation with Iran while trying to extract trade concessions from Beijing.
Bottom Line
China is treating the Iran crisis as an opportunity to reset the U.S.-China relationship on more favorable terms, betting that Trump needs Beijing's economic cooperation more than Xi needs American goodwill right now. Whether that calculation is correct depends entirely on what Trump prioritizes: containing Iran or confronting China. He probably can't maximize both simultaneously, and Beijing is forcing him to show his hand.